KUALA LUMPUR: A recovery in passenger demand close to 2019 levels is likely seen by the end of 2023, once the concerns related to personal health and safety are relieved, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
The rating agency, however, cautioned that with the recent increasing rates of infections in the United States that followed loosening of social distancing and quarantine protocols, passenger demand might ultimately align with its slower recovery case.
The pace of recovery could be worse if governments enforce social distancing and reinstate quarantine protocols because of the recent increasing infection rates, said Moody’s associate managing director Russell Solomon.
“To the extent that an environment characterised by fits and starts of health safety confidence levels and ensuing passenger demand persists beyond 2021, the risk of more extensive industry disruption and a more protracted recovery period would escalate further,” he said in a new report released today.
Moody’s said as passenger traffic eventually improves, airports would recover along with the airlines, followed by aircraft lessors and then the aircraft manufacturers.
The broad base of global suppliers that feed the aircraft manufacturers would be the last of the direct aviation industry stakeholders to regain their footing, but not before 2023, it added.